American Idol 2012 Finale Elimination: Who Will Win?

American Idol 2012 Top 2

Tonight all the cards will be laid on the table and we’ll finally know who won American Idol 2012. Either Phillip Phillips or Jessica Sanchez will take the crown and sing us out with a huge performance to end the night. Your votes in our poll have correctly identified the past four eliminations. Can you do it again? Let’s take a look at your votes and see who is your prediction for who will win American Idol 2012.

With over 18,000 votes in our poll at the time of publishing Jessica Sanchez leads with a whopping 62% of the vote. Now that’s a healthy majority. Despite a weak finish to the night with “Change Nothing” that simply did not go over well with the judges or critics it looks like her fan base was solid in their support. The real question is: will those global votes translate to a domestic win? Jessica obviously enjoys extremely vocal international support here on the site, but technically they’re not supposed to be voting. If enough external voters skirt the system to add their support on top of Jessica’s domestic support then that could easily put her over the top. With Nigel Lythgoe’s announcement that a “world record” of 132 million votes were received last night (that’s 10 million more than last season) I can’t help but think there may be more than just US votes in that total.

Phillip Phillips brought in just 37% of our poll’s votes. A full 25% less than Jessica here on the site. As far as the judges are concerned, the night was nearly split until that very last performance. We heard it poured on Phillip for his delivery of “Home” and rightfully so. From what we’ve heard from attendees, the Nokia Theatre crowd threw their support for the night to Phillip. Like him or not, Phillips brought it to a close with a big, big spectacle performance and having the final word is going to be important in the minds of voters. But will it be enough?

Looking back over the years of American Idol we’ve seen lots of close races. Last season it looked pretty clear that Scotty McCreery would take the cake, but things don’t feel that cut and dry to me this time around. We’ve seen four straight Idol seasons with a male winner which indicates a trend in the voting audience. The cynic in me expects that trend to continue. Sure, trends can change, and gee it’d be nice for ones like this to do so, but that’s what makes trends trends.

I don’t have a favorite between Phillips and Sanchez. Both are obviously talented performers or they wouldn’t have made it this far in the Idol competition if they weren’t. They’ve each earned their spot at the finale and a win by either would be justified. The majority of readers here believe Jessica Sanchez should win American Idol 2012. Maybe she will, but my jaded side says she won’t. Nothing at all against Phillip and, on the flipside, nothing for Jessica, but it’d be nice to see the chain broken for the sake of Idol and a little variety in what this aging show can offer rather than always seeming like a lock for the next guitarslinger that walks on stage.

Before the comment flames rain down, take a moment and ask yourself the bigger question: does it really matter who wins at this point? Phillip Phillips and Jessica Sanchez will have many opportunities to go out, make music, perform for fans, and release records to their heart’s content. So if your favorite doesn’t win tonight, it’ll be okay. I promise.

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